Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 18, 2024 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 130.0 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
Breece Hall has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (63.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (47.8%).
This week, Breece Hall is anticipated by the projections to finish in the 94th percentile among running backs with 5.3 targets.
In regards to air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
Breece Hall's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 85.1% to 75.6%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (80.9%) vs. running backs this year (80.9%).
This year, the tough Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a meager 6.0 yards.