Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets may pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Zach Wilson.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Breece Hall is expected by the projection model to finish in the 87th percentile among RBs with 3.7 targets.
Breece Hall's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 63.9% to 71.7%.

Favors Under

The Jets have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 5th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets.
Breece Hall's 8.5% Target% this season illustrates a a significant reduction in his passing attack usage over last season's 13.5% mark.
After totaling 23.0 air yards per game last year, Breece Hall has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at -1.0 per game.
Breece Hall's 11.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a a material drop-off in his receiving prowess over last season's 27.0 figure.

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