Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Tim Boyle.
An extreme passing game script is implied by the Jets being a huge -9.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this contest, Breece Hall is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 98th percentile among RBs with 5.8 targets.
With a fantastic 27.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (94th percentile) this year, Breece Hall stands among the leading pass-catching RBs in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 63.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.4 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume.
Breece Hall has compiled far fewer air yards this year (-2.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Breece Hall has been featured much less in his offense's passing game.

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