Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-154/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may throw the ball less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to use backup quarterback Zach Wilson.
The model projects the New York Jets offensive approach to skew 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
This game's spread implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this week's contest, Breece Hall is forecasted by the model to land in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.7 targets.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
The 10th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Jets this year (just 56.0 per game on average).
After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last year, Breece Hall has fallen off this year, currently pacing -2.0 per game.
Breece Hall's 16.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 26.5.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.

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