Breece Hall Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Carries

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jets rank as the 7th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 42.3% run rate.
The projections expect Breece Hall to earn 11.8 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Among all RBs, Breece Hall ranks in the 78th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 41.3% of the workload in his offense's ground game.
Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The New York Jets will be forced to start backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The projections expect this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.95 seconds per play based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
The Jets O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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