Braxton Berrios Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Jets are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Braxton Berrios has earned 3.8% of rush attempts this year (95th percentile).
Braxton Berrios has averaged 10.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among wide receivers and tight ends (92nd percentile).
Braxton Berrios's ground efficiency (11.41 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (93rd percentile among WRs and TEs).
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 93 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills defensive ends grade out as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.