Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-210).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Braxton Berrios has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (55.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (27.9%).
Braxton Berrios's receiving performance has gotten a boost this season, totaling 2.2 adjusted receptions vs a measly 1.2 last season.
Braxton Berrios's 74.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year conveys a noteworthy progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 58.9% figure.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has conceded the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.6%) to WRs this year (72.6%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tennessee's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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