Braxton Berrios Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+141/-193).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -193.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Braxton Berrios has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching a stellar 80.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among WRs.
The New York Jets offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

Braxton Berrios's 10.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 21.6.
The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Braxton Berrios's receiving skills have declined this year, averaging a mere 1.4 yards per game compared to 2.9 last year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (63.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.5%).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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