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Braxton Berrios

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather this week.

Braxton Berrios checks in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, catching an outstanding 71.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 77th percentile among WRs.

Since the start of last season, the porous Tennessee Titans defense has been gouged for a monstrous 158.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 5th-most in football.

The Titans pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (70.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (70.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 52.3% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.1 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 56.5 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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