Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
After totaling 13.0 air yards per game last year, Braxton Berrios has shown good development this year, currently averaging 26.0 per game.
Braxton Berrios's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 12.2.
Braxton Berrios has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
Braxton Berrios's 4.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents an impressive decline in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season's 6.6% rate.
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 7.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the league.