Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:26 PM EST

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
After accruing 13.0 air yards per game last season, Braxton Berrios has seen marked improvement this season, currently sitting at 28.0 per game.
Braxton Berrios's 23.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 12.2.
Braxton Berrios has notched significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
Braxton Berrios's 78.9% Adjusted Completion% this season conveys a material growth in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 58.9% figure.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Braxton Berrios's 4.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a material regression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 6.6% figure.
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) to wide receivers this year.

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