Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate.
Braxton Berrios has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (53.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (27.9%).
Braxton Berrios has totaled significantly more air yards this season (44.0 per game) than he did last season (13.0 per game).
Braxton Berrios's 40.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year illustrates a a substantial gain in his receiving ability over last year's 11.0 figure.
Braxton Berrios's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 58.9% to 77.8%.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 13-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins offense to be the 6th-worst paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.12 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) this year.
Braxton Berrios's ability to grind out extra yardage has diminished this season, totaling just 4.23 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.56 mark last season.
Since the start of last season, the imposing New York Giants defense has conceded a feeble 64.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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