Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
Braxton Berrios has been among the top wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a stellar 6.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
Braxton Berrios has run a route on 30.1% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 24th percentile among wide receivers.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
Braxton Berrios has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 13.0 yards per game while grading out in the 13th percentile among WRs.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (63.0%).