Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-117/-117).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jets to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Braxton Berrios has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching a stellar 80.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Braxton Berrios's ability to pick up extra yardage has improved this year, averaging 8.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.57 mark last year.

Favors Under

Braxton Berrios has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Braxton Berrios's 10.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 21.6.
The New York Jets O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Braxton Berrios has accrued significantly fewer receiving yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
Braxton Berrios's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, averaging just 5.23 yards-per-target compared to a 7.69 mark last year.

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