Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Braxton Berrios

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:16 PM EST

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The New York Jets offense has played at the 3rd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.56 seconds per play.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Braxton Berrios to be a more important option in his team's pass attack this week (11.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played).
Braxton Berrios's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 77.8% to 86.2%.

Favors Under

Braxton Berrios has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (9.0 per game) than he did last year (18.0 per game).
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Braxton Berrios has accumulated significantly fewer receiving yards per game (10.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
Braxton Berrios's receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a mere 5.51 yards-per-target vs a 7.69 rate last year.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (61.5%) versus wideouts this year (61.5%).

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