Braxton Berrios Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-5000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Braxton Berrios has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching a terrific 78.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.
The New York Jets offensive line has given their QB 2.69 seconds before the pass (5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the NFL.
Braxton Berrios has garnered a meager 3.7% of his team's air yards this year: a lowly 24th percentile among wide receivers.
Braxton Berrios's 9.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 21.6.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to rushing the passer.