Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-170/+140).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to total 8.2 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more heavily featured in his team's passing attack.
With an excellent 5.1 adjusted receptions per game (85th percentile) this year, Brandon Aiyuk rates as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.
Brandon Aiyuk's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 68.9% to 72.6%.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati's group of safeties has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see just 120.9 total plays called: the fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers this year (just 53.9 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.

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