Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+118/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this game, Brandon Aiyuk is anticipated by the projection model to place in the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.3 targets.
Brandon Aiyuk's 82.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 58.8.
Brandon Aiyuk grades out as one of the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 5.1 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.6%) vs. WRs this year (77.6%).

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
The San Francisco O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

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