Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a top-tier 93.7% Route% (96th percentile) since the start of last season, Brandon Aiyuk ranks as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
In this week's contest, Brandon Aiyuk is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 7.8 targets.
Brandon Aiyuk has been among the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 4.7 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Brandon Aiyuk's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 68.9% to 86.0%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 31.28 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Dallas Cowboys, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.5 per game) this year.

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