Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense efficiency when facing better conditions this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Brandon Aiyuk has run a route on 94.1% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
The projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to earn 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 4.7 receptions per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 14.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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