Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-122/-108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect Brandon Aiyuk to total 7.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk's 73.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this year than it was last year at 58.8.
Brandon Aiyuk checks in as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a fantastic 4.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Brandon Aiyuk's 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a meaningful progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 68.9% rate.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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