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Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.

In this contest, Brandon Aiyuk is projected by the model to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.2 targets.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more prominently relied on in his team's passing offense.

With a fantastic 5.1 adjusted catches per game (89th percentile) this year, Brandon Aiyuk places among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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