Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to accrue 6.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk's 58.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 42.9.
Brandon Aiyuk's receiving talent has improved this season, accumulating 4.6 yards per game vs a measly 3.1 last season.
Brandon Aiyuk's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.8% to 68.6%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 14.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.