Brandon Aiyuk Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to notch 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk's 54.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 44.8.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Brandon Aiyuk's receiving skills have been refined this year, notching 4.6 yards per game vs a measly 3.1 last year.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The 49ers have been the 10th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 58.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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