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Brandon Aiyuk Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+114/-157).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -157.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to garner 6.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among wideouts.Brandon Aiyuk's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.1.The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
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