Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 68.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 66.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the NFL (43.2 per game) this year.
In this contest, Brandon Aiyuk is projected by the model to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
After totaling 69.0 air yards per game last season, Brandon Aiyuk has undergone big improvement this season, now averaging 111.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more prominently relied on in his team's passing offense.
Brandon Aiyuk has compiled quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (87.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the 49ers ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year.

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