Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+212/-323).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -323.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brandon Aiyuk has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which ranks in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk has totaled significantly more air yards this year (63.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk's 51.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 43.1.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.