Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:50 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+258/-426).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +278 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +258.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass attack near the end zone this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.4% in games he has played).
Brandon Aiyuk has been responsible for a colossal 22.3% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 76th percentile among wide receivers.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks safeties project as the 4th-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a giant 8.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.61 per game since the start of last season.

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