Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+301/-536).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -488 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -536.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Brandon Aiyuk has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.9% this year, which puts him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk's 55.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 42.9.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63%) versus WRs this year (63.0%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.75 per game this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best collection of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 3.4% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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