Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+202/-303).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -287 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -303.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Brandon Aiyuk has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 27.5% this year, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk has posted far more air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (53.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk's 54.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 44.8.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 7th-least TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.64 per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.