Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-250).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Brandon Aiyuk has posted quite a few more air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (54.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk's 53.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this season than it was last season at 43.1.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Brandon Aiyuk's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Completion% increasing from 65.3% to 71.7%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (23.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (29.4% in games he has played).

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