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Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 11

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+181/-264).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -256 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -264.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-most in football.

Brandon Aiyuk has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.7% this year, which ranks him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Brandon Aiyuk has totaled many more air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).

Brandon Aiyuk's 53.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 43.1.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.

The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 9th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.70 per game this year.

The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.

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