Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+216/-328).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -280 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -328.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brandon Aiyuk has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which ranks him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (63.0 per game) than he did last season (54.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk's 51.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 43.1.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Brandon Aiyuk's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.3% to 71.3%.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers grade out as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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