Brandin Cooks Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Brandin Cooks

NFL · Player Props

Brandin Cooks

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:51 PM EST

Analysis

Brandin Cooks Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
This week's line implies a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3-point underdogs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (41.1 per game) this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's collection of CBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
Brandin Cooks's 37.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 53.6.
Brandin Cooks's play as a receiver has declined this year, compiling a measly 2.7 adjusted receptions vs 4.3 last year.
Brandin Cooks's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 63.1% to 60.1%.
This year, the formidable Eagles defense has given up a paltry 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.

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