Brandin Cooks Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brandin Cooks

NFL · Player Props

Brandin Cooks

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandin Cooks Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the highest Completion% in football (72.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (72.8%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed the 8th-most passing TDs in the NFL to wideouts: 1.25 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to be much less involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (26.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (44.4% in games he has played).
Brandin Cooks has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks's 60.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 71.8.
Brandin Cooks's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 59.0%.

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