Brandin Cooks Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Brandin Cooks

NFL · Player Props

Brandin Cooks

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Brandin Cooks Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+290/-390).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Brandin Cooks has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box vs. opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 54.4 plays per game.
Brandin Cooks has posted far fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (93.0 per game).
Brandin Cooks's 54.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 71.8.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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