Boston Scott Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Boston Scott

NFL · Player Props

Boston Scott

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Boston Scott Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

Boston Scott has been a much smaller part of his offense's run game this year (9.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (27.3%).
Boston Scott has run for quite a few less yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).
Boston Scott's running effectiveness has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 3.18 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.43 rate last year.
The Philadelphia Eagles have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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