Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 68.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Falcons to be the 5th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Bijan Robinson to garner 13.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Among all running backs, Bijan Robinson ranks in the 81st percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 46.5% of the workload in his team's run game.
When talking about run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL last year.
Bijan Robinson has averaged 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in football among RBs (84th percentile).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

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