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Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-182/+138).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +138.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Falcons, who are -3.5-point underdogs.Bijan Robinson has run a route on 64.8% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.The model projects Bijan Robinson to garner 4.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to RBs.Bijan Robinson comes in as one of the leading pass-catching running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 3.7 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.Bijan Robinson's 93.6% Adjusted Completion% this season shows an impressive progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 69.8% figure.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 51.1% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 63.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Washington Commanders, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.5 per game) this year.When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's LB corps has been excellent this year, ranking as the 5th-best in football.
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