Bijan Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
With a remarkable 68.1% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Bijan Robinson grades out as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among RBs, completing a measly 69.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.
The Panthers pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (76.9%) vs. running backs this year (76.9%).

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