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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Bijan Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Bijan Robinson has run a route on 67.2% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.

This week, Bijan Robinson is expected by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.7 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Bijan Robinson is positioned as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among running backs, catching a mere 71.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

This year, the formidable Saints defense has surrendered a mere 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

The Saints defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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