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Bijan Robinson

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Atlanta Falcons offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.23 seconds per play.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.

Bijan Robinson has run a route on 69.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.

In this game, Bijan Robinson is expected by the predictive model to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.5 targets.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons ranks as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4-point advantage, the Falcons are favored in this game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 55.7% of their opportunities: the 10th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Bijan Robinson has earned a puny -5.8% of his team's air yards this year: just 18th percentile among RBs.

The Saints defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 22.0) to RBs since the start of last season.

The Saints pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73.7%) versus running backs since the start of last season (73.7%).

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