Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 5:26 PM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Falcons to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Bijan Robinson has played on 72.5% of his offense's snaps this year, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The model projects Bijan Robinson to accrue 6.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to be the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 52.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Falcons have called the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
Looking at the sum total of his offense's air yards this year, Bijan Robinson is only responsible for a mere -3.9%, ranking him in the 18th percentile among RBs.
The Jaguars pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in football.

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