Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-145/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Bijan Robinson to garner 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 52.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons offense as the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.50 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Bijan Robinson to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack this week (18.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (23.9% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions defense has conceded the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 22.0) versus RBs since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has performed very well when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.69 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in the league.