Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
With a remarkable 68.1% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson has been as one of the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast Bijan Robinson to accumulate 4.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Bijan Robinson has totaled a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Bijan Robinson grades out as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football among RBs, completing a measly 69.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 7th percentile.
This year, the tough Carolina Panthers defense has yielded a paltry 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the best in the NFL.
The Panthers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. RBs this year, conceding 3.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football.