Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
The Buccaneers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (38.6 per game) this year.
Bijan Robinson has run a route on 67.8% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With a bad 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate (5th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson stands as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to RBs.
This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has yielded a measly 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 8th-best in the league.
The Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. RBs this year, giving up 5.15 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in football.

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