Bijan Robinson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Bijan Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Bijan Robinson

RB · Atlanta Falcons

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2024

Updated Dec 17, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Bijan Robinson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A running game script is implied by the Falcons being a 6-point favorite in this game.
Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in football (42.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Falcons.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 58.8 plays per game.
This week, Bijan Robinson is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.7 rush attempts.
After taking on 41.7% of his team's rush attempts last year, Bijan Robinson has been called on more in the ground game this year, currently making up 64.1%.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Falcons to call the 10th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
The Las Vegas defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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