Ben Skowronek Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 9, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+146/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +155 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 65.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Ben Skowronek has run a route on 21.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 12th percentile among WRs.
Ben Skowronek has been among the worst wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 1.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 20th percentile among WRs.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.