Ben Skowronek Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown bad efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 8.95 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the 3rd-worst group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The model projects Ben Skowronek to be a much smaller piece of his offense's passing attack this week (4.4% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.2% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Ben Skowronek has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 61.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 24th percentile among wideouts