Ben Skowronek Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Ben Skowronek

WR · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Ben Skowronek Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Ben Skowronek has been less involved as a potential target this year (77.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (21.2%).
Ben Skowronek has accrued significantly more air yards this season (30.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
Ben Skowronek has put up significantly more receiving yards per game (26.0) this year than he did last year (12.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Ben Skowronek has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 6.43 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 12th percentile among WRs
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.